Coming close to 4 years in power, Imran Khan’s popularity wanes as Pakistanis cite inflation as the biggest problem of the country; PTI retains top position in terms of national voting intention, while PML-N significantly ahead of PTI in Punjab which can have important electoral significance
Key findings from a nationally representative survey across 4 provinces of Pakistan by Gallup Pakistan in last week of December 2021 and January 2022 revealed the following key findings about the performance of the government.
The survey was conducted with over 5688 respondents across urban and rural areas, covering all 130 districts in the country. The sample comprised of a cross-section of age, and socio-economic classes. Field work was completed during 22nd December 2021 to 31st January 2022. Methodology of the study was hybrid of phone using random digit dialing and face-to-face in home through stratified random sampling.
1. What is Pakistan’s biggest problem right now? Public opinion is clear as majority cite inflation as the biggest problem of the country
Public opinion is clear as 64% of respondents cite inflation as the biggest problem of the country, followed by 21% citing unemployment and 7% citing corruption.
Across all demographics (gender, age etc.), opinion seems to be similar as most hold inflation to be the largest problem of the country.
Trend analysis shows that the percentage of people claiming inflation to be the main problem have increased from 44% in July 2021 to 64%. It also appears that because of inflation other concerns like corruption or regional threat has been overtaken.
2. Will Imran Khan’s government complete its term? Despite adverse rating for PTI, more than 50% of Pakistanis believe that Imran Khan’s government will be able to complete its five-year term soon.
53% of Pakistanis believe that Imran Khan’s government will be able to complete its five-year term soon. View is unanimous across all age-groups almost equally.
3. Comparison with previous governments? A greater proportion of Pakistanis state that the performance of the PTI government is worse than that of the PML-N and PPP governments.
41% believe that the performance of PTI government is worse than that of the PML-N government while 32% believe it is better. Similarly, though the difference is not too significant, slightly more people (32%) believe that PTI’s performance is worse than that of PPP while 30% believe it is better.
4. Performance Rating of National Political Leaders? Public Opinion split with Nawaz Sharif having more positive performance ratings and his ratings seem to have emerged from negative to positive in terms of net rating
Public Opinion split equally with 55% of respondents holding a positive opinion about Nawaz Sharif’s performance. Only 23% stated did not hold a favorable opinion about his performance.
On the other side of the scale, 51% of respondents holding a positive opinion about Shahbaz Sharif’s performance. Only 23% stated did not hold a favorable opinion about his performance.
48% held negative perceptions about Imran Khan’s performance while 36% held a more favorable opinion.
43% believed Asif Ali Zardari’s performance to be poor and 24% viewed it favorably.
While 28% believed Bilawal Bhutto’s performance was good, 32% believed it was poor.
5. Performance of the provincial government? KP CM tops among the three CMs tested in this survey. Level of dissatisfaction was similar in Sindh and Punjab but least in KPK
For both Punjab and Sindh, an approximately equal proportion of people from the respective provinces perceived the performance of their respective Chief Ministers negatively (55% and 54%) and positively (41%).
The performance of the Chief Minister of KPK was viewed favorably by 53% of KPK residents while 41% viewed it unfavorably.
6. Perception regarding performance of institutions of the state? 43% of Pakistanis held a positive view of the performance of Pakistan’s media; nearly 1 in 5 Pakistanis (16%) held a negative perception of the performance of Pakistan’s media and government employees (16% each)
43% of Pakistanis held a positive view of the performance of Pakistan’s media followed by the government employees (35%) and lastly, the National Assembly (26%).
When considering the opposite, 17% viewed the performance of National Assembly negatively, followed by government employees (16%) and the media (15%).
7. Expected Voting Behavior? PTI ahead of PML-N nationally but trailing significantly behind in Punjab which could give significant electoral lead to PML-N
Public opinion was similar when considering predictions for voting behavior for both the next local and National Assembly elections; however, PTI ranked slightly higher than PML-N in the general elections as compared to the local elections.
23% of people chose PTI as the party they will vote for in the next NA elections while 22% chose PML-N – 10% chose PPP and 22% stated that they intend not to vote.
Respondents from Punjab intended to vote for PML-N more, those from Sindh intended to vote for PPP more, those from KPK intended to vote for PTI while those in Balochistan were more inclined towards PPP. A similar pattern was seen for the future local elections as well.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY POSITION
IN 5 ELECTORAL CONTESTS (4 PROVINCIAL AND ONE NATIONAL), PTI AHEAD IN 2, PPP IN 2 AND PML-N IN 1 (PUNJAB)
IN ALL 5 ELECTORAL CONTESTS, PTI IS IN TOP 2
| 1ST POSITION | 2ND POSITION | |
| NATIONAL | PTI | PML-N |
| PUNJAB | PML-N | PTI |
| SINDH | PPP | PTI |
| KP | PTI | PML-N |
| BALOCHISTAN | PPP | PTI |
As education increases, preference for PTI increases in terms of voting intention.
8. Staying or leaving Pakistan? If given the option, most Pakistanis chose to stay in Pakistan and not leave
Nearly 3 in 4 Pakistanis (76%) stated that they would stay even if they were given the necessary papers to go and live in a richer country while 24% held an opposing view.
9. Significant despair in the country regarding direction of the country as majority (45%) believes country’s direction is not correct
