PTI most popular party for the upcoming GB Provincial Assembly elections but very closely followed by PPP – PRE-ELECTION PREDICTION VERY MURKY AND DIFFICULT
Respondents to the survey were next asked which political party they would vote for on the Election Day for the Provincial Assembly Elections. In response, 27% said PTI, 24% said PPP, 14% said PML-N and remaining cited other parties.
Closer analysis shows that PPP is ahead of PTI in 2 out of 3 divisions of GB (Diamer and Gilgit). However, PTI is ahead in Baltistan area. Given first past the post system of election in GB, this may go in favor of PPP who may win more seats than PTI.
It should be noted that all surveys are prone to error margins. The difference of vote between PPP and PTI therefore lies within error margin (after adjusting for design effect).
Therefore, our considered view is that this election in its current form is VERY CLOSELY CONTESTED BETWEEN PPP AND PTI and much would depend on the electoral dynamics of the election day (who is able to assist their voter to come out and vote for them!)
