7 Main Learnings from Snap Poll by Gallup Pakistan on the issue of PTI’s Govts departure
1/ Public Opinion split over Imran Khan’s removal with 57% saying they are happy on his departure and 43% Angry
Public opinion fractured and polarized on the issue on various demographic and geographical lines.
More females (62%) than males (53%) happy on IK’s departure , respondents in KP most angry (47% say they are angry), limited age difference was found but those in 18-23 age group were more angry than other groups. The starkest difference was seen in terms of education , where those who had Intermediate or better degree, overwhelming majority were unhappy/ angry (62%). Similarly Urban vs Rural differences also showed up with rural respondents less angry (40%) than urban (47%)
2/ Reasons for those who are happy? Inflation tops
Among those who were happy about IK’s departure , the most often cited reason was inflation , followed by inability to govern
3/ Reasons for those unhappy ? IK being an honest man
Among those who were sad/angry most respondents believed that IK was an honest man (25%) and a great leader (18%) and that PTI had a right to complete its five-year term (15%)
4/ Only a third respondents (33%) watched proceedings of the National Assembly on the fateful day
However stark differences existed with more men (41%) than females (26%) having watched. Older respondents having age 50 and above were most likely to watch, similarly viewership of the proceedings was more popular in Urban areas 45% vs rural 27%. Lastly education was significant determinant with 29% of under FA education and 57% of above FA having watched the proceedings.
5/ Reasons for removal : Inflation vs foreign conspiracy , 2 in 3 continue to believe in inflation rather than conspiracy being source of IK’s removal but views fractured on polarized lines
66% of respondents believe that IK was removed because of inflation and other issues in the latest round of polling after the success of No Confidence motion. When same question was asked immediately after the dismissal of assemblies by PM , the number was 64% (within the error margin)
Those who believe in conspiracy theory were earlier 36% and now 34% .
However polarized views were shown with again those with FA or better degree , significant majority believing in the conspiracy 56% vs only 26% from non-FA background believing in the conspiracy explanation.
Similarly , appeal for the conspiracy theory was highest among youth / first time voters (38%), in KP province (39%), and among urban respondents (37%)
6/ Should elections happen soon rather than in 2023, overwhelming support across party and demographic lines for early elections
Sweeping 69% when asked about elections soon rather than in 2023 want election now.
This was across party lines (60% of PMLN voters) also want election early. The usual determinant in this report was on education where significant cleavages appeared in terms of public perception. However, on this the FA vs Non-FA degree holders agreed (69% vs 71% vice versa) on holding elections.
7/ Charges of being traitors : massive 40% agree that opposition is ghaddar !
Those saying opposition is ghaddar is highest among FA and better degree holders (53%), Urban (47%) and among young first-time voters 46%
